TAX ADMINISTRATION MODERNIZATION, REVENUE MOBILIZATION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM AN EMERGING ECONOMY (2015–2025)

Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical linkages between tax administration modernization, domestic revenue mobilization, and economic growth in Nigeria over the decade spanning 2015 to 2025. Facing persistent fiscal deficits and structural revenue volatility, developing and emerging economies have increasingly prioritized digital tax infrastructure—such as automated filing systems, electronic invoicing, and centralized taxpayer databases—to strengthen compliance and widen the tax base. Using annual time-series data from 2015 to 2025 (N = 11), this study employs an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression framework complemented by diagnostic testing to evaluate the short- and long-run impacts of modernization metrics on revenue performance and real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) growth. The empirical findings reveal that tax administration modernization has a statistically significant positive effect on non-oil revenue mobilization (β = 0.058, p < 0.001), while modernized domestic revenue mobilization significantly enhances real GDP growth (β = 0.382, p < 0.05). The study concludes that technological innovation in tax collection acts as a vital catalyst for fiscal stability and sustained macroeconomic expansion. Key policy recommendations emphasize expanding digital tax literacy, integrating informal sector operations into e-tax platforms, and reinforcing cybersecurity frameworks